Wednesday, November 23, 2005
Negroponte's Pipe Dream
There has been much chatter recently about Negroponte's 100 dollar laptop. Working in ICT4D and also in one of Negroponte's target countries, I have been lukewarm to the idea and have decided to put in words the reasons for this. Other people have already discussed the intricate economic compromises Negroponte has had to make, such as the tomfoolery of mandating seven digit bulk orders. I've got other reasons for thinking his project unviable.
The nutshell edition of my reaction is, don't bother. This thing won't take off.
For this thing to work, it requires a social environment where a family regards its primary objective as the furthering of the welfare of the child; otherwise, how do you think a public sector employee can justify spending 4 or 5 months' worth of salary on something like this? In many families in developing environments, the primary economic goal is not stimulation of future economic potential of children, it's keeping them fed and clothed.
Assuming that the family is interested primarily in furthering their children's skill arsenal with computer literacy(which it isn't), then the family provider (usually father) will need a clear vision of how this machine will give his child a clear economic advantage or edge. The fact is that the logical link between computer skills and economic betterment is tenuous enough for it to be easily missed. Most fathers are going to say something like "What is my son going to do with a computer, play games? Why should he learn to program, he should learn how to make furniture or fix plumbing, those people make money." In the LDCs (Less Digitized Countries, to hijack a well worn acronym), the import of computing access is underappreciated and often misrepresented as a frivolous investment or pastime. This requires awareness building on the medium term, something which I don't see Negroponte working on.
Negroponte is right that reduced cost makes for improved access to computing facilities, but he's wrong that this automatically means the cost of a new computer. It's clear that he either hasn't lived in a developing environment for long or, if he has, he's failed to adapt his beliefs to the facts on the ground.
The only way to reduce costs of computing access is to prolong the employment lifecycle of hardware and induce rapid hardware turnover. In other words, letting "obsolete" hardware trickle down in cost and ownership.
If my theory is correct, which I'll bet the farm it is, then we'll have Moore and Gates and the Nvidia/ATI marketing departments to thank for bringing computers to the masses. ICT4D professional finds reason to thank Gates, you read it here first! ¶ 10:38 AM
The nutshell edition of my reaction is, don't bother. This thing won't take off.
For this thing to work, it requires a social environment where a family regards its primary objective as the furthering of the welfare of the child; otherwise, how do you think a public sector employee can justify spending 4 or 5 months' worth of salary on something like this? In many families in developing environments, the primary economic goal is not stimulation of future economic potential of children, it's keeping them fed and clothed.
Assuming that the family is interested primarily in furthering their children's skill arsenal with computer literacy(which it isn't), then the family provider (usually father) will need a clear vision of how this machine will give his child a clear economic advantage or edge. The fact is that the logical link between computer skills and economic betterment is tenuous enough for it to be easily missed. Most fathers are going to say something like "What is my son going to do with a computer, play games? Why should he learn to program, he should learn how to make furniture or fix plumbing, those people make money." In the LDCs (Less Digitized Countries, to hijack a well worn acronym), the import of computing access is underappreciated and often misrepresented as a frivolous investment or pastime. This requires awareness building on the medium term, something which I don't see Negroponte working on.
Negroponte is right that reduced cost makes for improved access to computing facilities, but he's wrong that this automatically means the cost of a new computer. It's clear that he either hasn't lived in a developing environment for long or, if he has, he's failed to adapt his beliefs to the facts on the ground.
The only way to reduce costs of computing access is to prolong the employment lifecycle of hardware and induce rapid hardware turnover. In other words, letting "obsolete" hardware trickle down in cost and ownership.
If my theory is correct, which I'll bet the farm it is, then we'll have Moore and Gates and the Nvidia/ATI marketing departments to thank for bringing computers to the masses. ICT4D professional finds reason to thank Gates, you read it here first! ¶ 10:38 AM
Comments:
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"otherwise, how do you think a public sector employee can justify spending 4 or 5 months' worth of salary on something like this?"
This is essentially the foundation of your argument and it's 100% flawed. People are not expected to buy these for their kids that's why they're selling to governments. The govt. buys it and gives it free to the kids.
The reason they're only dealing with large orders may not be a great business decision but it is a sensible one... they just don't have the manpower to deal with lots of tiny orders. 7 digits is nothing for a govt if you're talking about money. If you're talking about number of boxes then you're mistaken.
This is essentially the foundation of your argument and it's 100% flawed. People are not expected to buy these for their kids that's why they're selling to governments. The govt. buys it and gives it free to the kids.
The reason they're only dealing with large orders may not be a great business decision but it is a sensible one... they just don't have the manpower to deal with lots of tiny orders. 7 digits is nothing for a govt if you're talking about money. If you're talking about number of boxes then you're mistaken.
Nor is computer literacy a goal of this project. Just being able to access local news on the web or have a basic calculator or to have ebooks to learn how to read would be a great help. Books are expensive. For the price of just a few books they could buy one of these computers and then enjoy zero-cost books.
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